Recovery, Renewal, Resilience

The pressures placed on the global food system during COVID-19 activated various policy responses across the world to manage supply and demand. Sub-Saharan African countries rely heavily on food imports. This means that international agricultural policy responses to the pandemic in markets on which Africa relies, directly affect the region’s food markets. Potential impacts include “commodity price volatility the availability of supplies and farmers’ planting decisions”. Consider how to address the impacts of COVID and build food system resilience for the future with regard to countries that rely on food imports:

• Design more “holistic policy interventions” which tackle bottlenecks in the vast span of “value chain actors” e.g. suppliers and transporters, traders and retailers, to advance resilience of the entire supply chain
• Invest in market infrastructure, e.g. cold storage systems, to strengthen supply chains of perishable goods
• Establish and increase social protections for particularly vulnerable groups e.g. “urban poor, informal workers and resource-poor smallholder farmers"
• Advance regional and local trade agreements that enable greater food market integration – with the aim of developing resilient domestic and regional food systems, lowering the reliance on importing, and increasing local domestic economic growth

Vaccines are highly perishable and must be kept at very cold, specific temperatures. The majority of COVID-19 vaccines under development will spoil, and need to be discarded, if they are not kept at the right temperature. National and local governments, alongside health systems and the private sector, need to imminently consider their cold chains to avoid unnecessary spoiling of vaccines. The cold chain is a supply chain that can keep vaccines in tightly controlled temperatures from the moment they are made to the moment that they are administered to a person. Preparing the cold chain may take months, so investments into planning and resources now can help expand and support the current vaccine cold chain so it is ready and able to meet the scale of the mass vaccination programmes required. To prepare/scale up the cold chain consider:

• Where vaccines will be produced and transported, and the requirements for transportation including planes and trucks within countries and for distribution abroad
• There are a number of vaccines under development, many of which require different temperatures and handling procedures. Which will be approved first is unknown, therefore to prepare staff when one is approved staff in the cold chain should be trained to handle all possible vaccines to save time and avoid spoilage
• The frequency of deliveries that may be needed to facilities where dispensing will take place. This depends on the refrigeration capacity of health care organizations and hospitals, staffing resources, the locations the vaccines, and the shelf life of the vaccine
• How to expand shipping and storage capacity, including the specialised equipment needed to store vaccines at certain temperatures. Encourage airports and logistics companies to evaluate how well they could meet cold chain requirements

Information asymmetry means that one party has more or better information than the other. During COVID-19 information asymmetry has led to food waste and unsustainable farming practices as information about food production is only available to a small number of people in the supply chain. Decentralised information that includes small-scale and flexible production can support more uncertain operating environments such as those needed during COVID-19. Producers and retailers can consider how to increase the flexibility and sustainability of their supply chains by:

• De-concentrating markets and supply chains by ensuring they are not concentrated in a small number of large companies by using online platforms that create more access for businesses to sell goods and provide producers and consumers more options:
  • In Peru, 80% of merchants at a major market tested positive for COVID-19, but authorities felt closing the market would result in significant food shortages as the supply was concentrated. However in India, by selling through digital platforms, coffee producers were able to keep selling, and obtain significantly higher prices than usual
• Tracing food throughout the supply chain in a decentralized manner creates opportunities for safer, more sustainable food to protect from zoonotic disease:
  • In Uruguay, foot and mouth transmission was mitigated through de-centralized information sharing where the system would assign an identification code to cattle, letting you know its treatment and location on the production chain in real time
• Disseminating open data throughout the complex food system to: correct information asymmetries, encourage innovation, and increase efficiency of public spending

Testing is considered critical to managing COVID-19, and mitigating the risk of diagnostic-supply shortages can help contain the virus and support efforts to scale testing. Diagnostic testing can confirm or determine the presence of disease in an individual suspected of having a disease. Continuing to identify those who are infected with COVID-19 remains important to treat and isolate them, and to enhance knowledge of the disease. Consider how to:

• Map available laboratory-testing capacity which can be underutilized e.g. laboratories around the USA have reported unused capacity which could be used to conduct more tests
• Maximize existing laboratory capacity by assessing: workflows; number of trained and personnel; compile a full inventory of equipment
• Partner with Universities and major diagnostic manufacturers e.g. to share equipment, research facilities, and trained personnel
• Using less resources through pooled testing of people for COVID-19 (The Manchester Briefing Week 17)

Researchers believe that the main threat to the blood supply is not COVID-19 itself, but the unintended consequences of social distancing on blood donations. This has resulted in uncertain patterns of demand for blood and reductions in donations. Consider:

• Monitoring the supply and demand in hospital based and transfusion services so sufficient blood stocks are maintained to support ongoing critical needs e.g. for major trauma
• Mitigating (theoretical) transmission of COVID-19 from asymptomatic individuals e.g.:
  • Persons donating blood must inform donation centres if they develop a respiratory illness within 14 days of the donation
  • Persons should refrain from donating blood if they have travelled to areas with high community transmission
  • Persons who have recovered from diagnosed COVID-19 should not donate blood for 14 days after full recovery
• How to mitigate staff and donor exposure to COVID-19 through appropriate PPE and sanitation
• How to mitigate donor decline through clear, proactive and consistent communication strategies to address and overcome donor anxiety which often stem from misinformation
• Systems to enable re-entry of COVID-19 infected donors to donation centres after full recovery

More information from the WHO can be found here.

The resilience of construction and infrastructure is highly dependent on reliable, flexible and sustainable supply chains. Learning from the impacts of COVID-19 has identified three key phases for building supply chain resilience. Consider how to:

Secure the supply chain - immediate steps

• Rapidly assess levels of inventory and resource capacity against immediate/emerging demand
• Analyse a range of tactical scenarios and secure essential resources needed to maintain operations
• Evaluate existing relevant contract clauses such as those covering insurances and payment

Recover the supply chain - steps to be taken next

• Refresh business continuity management plans e.g. tested home working, wellbeing protocols, emergency command/control structures

Prepare the supply chain for a post COVID-19 world

• Embed resilience e.g. Has risk increased? Is the supply chain intact?
• Build resilience through
  • keeping redundancy (e.g. increasing stocks, spare capacity, supply competition);
  • creating resistance (e.g. automation);
  • improving recovery (e.g. rapid response protocols)
• Map strategic supply chains to identify possible points of failure in future shocks e.g. an emergency or second wave
• Implement 'smart' forecasting, analytics, and cloud-based systems that provide advanced prediction and indicate disruption

The transfer of diseases such as COVID-19, avian influenza and swine flu can occur in agriculture and food production sectors. This can be facilitated by the rapid industrialization of meat production and poor biosecurity. Consider:

• increased monitoring of agricultural production as 'big farms create big flu'
• careful monitoring of wild animal sales; simply banning such practices may only drive markets underground and reduce visibility
• disease mitigation measures on farming practices of vulnerable populations. In the avian influenza outbreak, poultry from 'backyard chicken' producers were slaughtered compulsorily in huge numbers which caused devastating impacts on livelihoods across southeast Asia
• affordable measures for smaller farmers to meet food and agricultural standards, and consideration that if you remove their livelihoods, they will likely become more susceptible to current disease or new zoonotic diseases as a result of wild animal sale or consumption

The shock to global supply and demand resulting from COVID-19 has exacerbated workers' vulnerability to modern slavery. Consider supply chain management approaches that reduce the risks of worker exploitation by increasing firms' resilience to cope with highly volatile and extreme events, such as COVID 19. Consider:

• ensuring there is capacity to audit suppliers and their workforces to detect and remediate instances of labour exploitation
• how to maintain transparency in the supply chain so that risky supplier behaviour, such as unauthorised subcontracting, can be traced
• circumventing organisations with known malpractices in order to meet demand e.g. in the US, an import ban has been lifted to receive supply from a large Malaysian manufacturer of medical gloves accused of using forced labour
• liaising with support mechanisms for those at risk of modern slavery, such as faith and community organisations and helplines to monitor wellbeing
• collaborate with unions, NGOs, and other expert stakeholders to increase supply chain transparency and allow for a proactive detection on deteriorating working conditions

Addressing the equality of food systems can help support their resilience. Consider:

• Improving the local economy and the food system simultaneously by growing locally, and employing the local population
• Urban farms for local food production e.g. utilising school gardens
• Engaging neighbourhood leaders to improve understanding of who needs assistance
• Improving sustainability e.g. drive through markets to keep markets open during lockdowns and avoid waste from spoilage, as well as giving smaller sellers security in selling produce
• Enabling community food parcels to be ordered in a similar way to ordering food deliveries
• Improving the food sector workers' protection to help prevent COVID-19 infection
• Keeping school cafeterias open for collection of meals for vulnerable children

Closure of markets has meant many in the agricultural industries have required support in distributing their products. In Lyon, local government took the following actions:

• Identified producers in difficulty and their needs via the Chamber of Agriculture
• Coordinated digital platforms' connections with producers and consumers
• Mapped additional warehousing facilities to support storage of produce and preparation for market
• Provided specific open-air collection points to collect orders
• Researched other rapid distribution channels e.g. through the Red Cross
• Created additional sales outlets when markets were not viable

Globally, supply chains face challenges in responding to disruptions as a result of COVID-19. Consider:

• Contingency plans that adequately review project controls, risk management and governance processes to provide early warnings of risk impact e.g. a second wave of COVID-19, and the cost, time or contractual impacts of this
• How changes to demand, use and other consumer behaviours will place extra pressure on revenues
• How restrictions on people's movements impact productivity
• How alternative delivery methods and increased supply chain visibility can mitigate supply delays and expose key vulnerabilities
• How the use of advanced controls and technology can ensure more efficient use of resources and better decision-making
• Strategies for transparent communication with all stakeholders, including employees and every party along the supply chain. This can boost reputations, morale and trust among all stakeholders

Spontaneous supply chains (SSC) emerge during a crisis to meet unmet demand. They may fill a gap locally or nationally i.e. transformation in manufacturing and production. In the USA, Amish communities have shifted their production from woodwork and carpentry organised by men, to the production of facemasks by women. Women were sewing up to 50,000 face masks per day that met hospital sanctioned quality control. Consider:

• How SSC can be integrated into formal supply chains to ensure quality and efficiency
• How SSC can be integrated into local government efforts. Many SSCs are locally driven and so integration into existing local supply chains would increase their efficiency and effectiveness
• How to build firm-frim relations to support SSC integration e.g. building trust, developing contracts, designing management systems
• Opportunities for staying connected to local communities that have capacity to support

In Korea, specific measures were taken to stabilise the supply of face masks in particular. The government developed an emergency joint meeting of relevant ministries and a joint inspection team to conduct daily inspections and to handle reports on unfair sales of masks.

• The Ministry of Economy and Finance set up its own taskforce, independent of the joint government inspection team, to inspect the mask supply chain
• The Ministry of Economy and Finance formed a 64-person taskforce within a day. They visited: manufacturing companies to listen to their difficulties; stores authorized to sell masks; factories, and the distribution hubs to inspect the situation on production and distribution, and difficulties in the supply and demand of raw materials
• The taskforce inspected 751 sites from February 28 to March 9, and allowed the onsite inputs to be appropriately reflected in policies which ultimately stabilised supply

Additionally, consider where the biggest bottlenecks are, and respond by changing your focus 'as you go'. Use data and feedback loops now to get a market-level perspective that is targeted and can support forecasting for recovery.

Additionally, carefully consider inventory levels at every step in the supply chain. Modern supply chain and preferred supplier practices have struggled to ensure reliable and durable supply of masks and ventilators at the scale needed in this pandemic. When a (global) pandemic strikes this can remove the supplier and therefore the products from the market. Develop supply chain resilience through the use of several strategic suppliers rather than seeking exclusive supply from single manufacturers at low price points.

Reference: UK county Council, NHS Emergency Planner and an expert in Civil Contingency, Germany

Make preparations for disrupted food supply chains and the potential of price increases for key commodities alongside reduced economic activity, and people's reduced purchasing power.

"The lessons from the 2014 Ebola outbreak are clear: while health needs are an urgent and primary concern, we cannot neglect livelihoods or food security aspects...when people's livelihoods are disrupted, that can spark tensions and social unrest".