Recovery, Renewal, Resilience

In October 2020, we were awarded funding from UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) to continue our work on The Manchester Briefing through a new project titled “Recovery, Renewal, Resilience: Informing, supporting and developing guidance for local resilience”. The project starts on 1st January 2021 so we will only briefly introduce it here – and the next issue of TMB (on 8th January 2021) will describe the project in more detail.

Research Objective: This project works closely with resilience partners to develop a generalizable, theoretically underpinned framework for how short-term recovery and long-term renewal to COVID-19 can enhance resilience. The framework will:

• Take a whole system approach to recovery and renewal (from community to national)
• Explore how to manage the changes in people, places and processes that is needed
• Address short-term, transactional recovery as well as longer-term, transformational renewal
• Complement existing guidance and resilience standards and lead to an international standard on recovery and renewal

Approach: The framework will be informed by (and inform) the committees that coordinate recovery in a local area by working closely with the resilience partners and engaging with local and national organisations on how they plan recovery and renewal on a system-wide basis. Our local government partners have different structures and geographies so we can create a framework that is widely applicable to local variations. At present we are pleased to have the collaboration with four local resilience partnerships and intend complementing this by partnering with three overseas cities.

Activities

• Collect and analyse national/international lessons on recovery and renewal
• Interview experts across the world on emergency planning, risk, and resilience
• Contribute to three local committees that coordinate their city’s recovery and renewal projects
• Facilitate webinars and training on recovery and renewal for resilience
• Develop and test a framework for recovery and renewal, refine it in different contexts (national and international), learn about its application, and use feedback to improve it
• Develop and test a methodology to assess the impact of the framework

Main deliverables

• Expert briefings on how to implement recovery and renewal for local resilience
• A searchable database of lessons for recovery and renewal for local resilience
• A theoretically underpinned, practice-tested framework to support thinking about recovery and renewal for local resilience
• A self-evaluation methodology to reflect on recovery practices
• The Manchester Briefing, case studies, and training products
• International and national standards having a global impact

We know that, across the world, organisations are at different stages of thinking about recovery so we aim to provide results that are helpful to those that may not yet have formally begun (nor have the structures to begin) their recovery process, as well as involve those that are more advanced in their thinking and activity.

We are grateful to the following organisations for their interest in the project: Essex LRF, Thames Valley LRF, Merseyside FRS, Global Resilient Cities Network, Civil Contingencies Secretariat (Recovery and Human Aspects Team), Emergency Planning Society, Local Government Association, SOLACE, International Standards Organization, British Standards Institute.

The project is co-funded by Economic and Social Research Council (under grant reference number: ES/V015346/1), and The University of Manchester, UK.

AI uses computer systems to perform tasks associated with human intelligence. This can be used to help detect and interpret patterns useful for managing emergencies. Explore with AI experts how AI may be used in COVID-19 mitigation, preparation, response and recovery:

• Mitigation: To recognize patterns in the environment to provide early warning e.g. data on compounding factors associated with COVID-19 infection such as urban poverty to provide information on potentially high risk areas
• Preparation: To analyse patterns in natural and social phenomena e.g. impacts of natural disasters on hospital capacity during COVID-19. Run emergency simulations to mathematically model detailed emergency management plans to account for compounding disasters during the pandemic
• Response and Recovery: To evaluate situational information from social media, and surveillance cameras to determine where response is needed, and to support coordination of recovery activities e.g. drones can be used to transport PPE, using online information developed by mapping COVID hotspots. In the UK, Windracers (a humanitarian aid transportation company) used delivery drones to fly four times a day to the Isle of Wight, taking just 10 minutes to deliver PPE

The novelty of the COVID-19 pandemic has meant that information about the disease has continually been changing. During the pandemic explicit or implied certainty has led to inaccurate predictions e.g. in death and infection rates. While so little is known about COVID-19 (meaning uncertainty is unavoidable), communicating preliminary or emergent data as certain facts had impacts on behaviours and lives. Consider how acknowledging uncertainty about COVID-19 may:

• Improve the atmosphere around scientific debate and build public trust through conveying that evidence and practice could/should change with more information and research
• Improve people's trust in government authority as the information they provide is transparent, and in respecting uncertainty are able to acknowledge credible yet conflicting evidence

Increase regular evaluation of pandemic management plans - emergency planner's understanding of influenza viruses has increased dramatically in recent decades, yet, there is very little certainty about the determinants of, and possibilities for, pandemic emergence ( https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2862331/). This is illustrated by contradiction that: COVID-19 was largely unexpected, but that there are a large number of influenza pandemic management plans in circulation.

COVID-19 has fundamentally changed the way organisations operate, and has COVID-19 has become more integrated into organisations, new forms of 'business as usual' have emerged:

1. Business as usual pre-COVID-19: processes in place before the pandemic that were considered the usual way of operating during minor disturbances e.g. annual infrastructure maintenance
2. Business as usual during response to COVID-19: processes that had to adapt swiftly under extreme uncertainty and completely changed normal pre-COVID operations e.g. building of additional hospitals to increase health service's capacity
3. Business as usual during recovery from COVID-19: processes that have ramped down but consider COVID-19 requirements e.g. standing down of Strategic Co-ordination Groups, and a return to organisations relying more on internal capacity/information, rather than multi-organisational approaches

An organisation's approach to 'business as usual' can impact response and recovery. Interconnectivity and connected governance is required to ensure that people's health and wellbeing are considered; that organisations have capacity; and that response and recovery are integrated. Consider:

• Pre-COVID operations (such as maintenance) may need to continue, but should not be undertaken without consultation with other partners who may be affected by such actions e.g. building/service closures due to maintenance. Undertaking pre-COVID operation's should therefore consider knock-on effects on the functionality of operations/organisations
• Risk assessing actions and disseminating this information to relevant stakeholders
• Key partners and related sectors should be included in decisions about 'business as usual' operations, to ensure they are appropriate, scalable and maintain interconnectivity

In Ecuador, efforts have been made to engage children with music to help support their mental health during lockdown and periods where they are away from school. Consider the pressures on children to catch-up with purely academic subjects in light of school closures and online learning, and how to promote mental health and wellbeing through the arts. Consider:

• Inviting children to send in videos of themselves singing or dancing to songs that make them feel happy or empowered, and encourage family members to join in
• Editing the videos to create short films or creating virtual choirs if the same song is assigned/chosen
• How music and the arts can help children express their anxieties and the benefits of this for their mental health and wellbeing

Establishing new ways to include music and song safely throughout the school day and how this can also contribute to teachers' continuing Professional Development and their own mental health

As remote working becomes increasingly more common during the COVID-19 pandemic, a number of countries have begun to offer Remote Working Visas where people can work as 'digital nomads' i.e. live in one country but work remotely in another. For countries offering Remote Work Visas, this has contributed to boosting economies at a time when other industries (such as tourism) are suffering. For companies employing digital nomads it offers the opportunity to pay competitive salaries to those who may be able to reduce their living costs by not working in the same country as their employer. Similar programmes may be considered at a local level, whereby employees can decide to live and work remotely in one city, and be paid by a company in another. Consider the benefits for companies, including:

• Offering flexible working to help reduce resignations from staff who are reconsidering their work life in the aftermath of COVID-19 and explore job opportunities overseas
• The reduced cost of staff e.g. the London Weighting allowance means employers pay anything between 1-20% more to employees living and working In London compared to other UK regions

Consider the benefits for local economies, including:

• Building local economies by attracting new residents e.g. one study found that 60% of people has seen people reconsider their living situation, with many setting their sights on an escape to the coast
• Rebuilding economies that were reliant on other industries e.g. tourism as people consider relocating to areas such as the coast - an area hard-hit by a diminishing tourist industry due to COVID-19

Formal learning from COVID-19 is beginning to take place at national and international levels, to capture rapid dissemination of information and lessons. Similar approaches at local government levels are identifying emerging trends in response and identifying gaps and opportunities for the future e.g. The Ney report on Local COVID-19 outbreaks: Lessons learnt and good practice from Leicestershire’s experiences of responding to a local surge in COVID-19 cases. Consider:

• Learning can capture information in cities or regions
• Learning can be undertaken by individual local governments or a consortium through mechanisms such as peer review (see ISO 22392)
• Lessons may be disseminated within a single locale or more widely. The may be between cities or regions or internationally with organisations such as the Global Resilient Cities Network

We provide a few examples of formalised international learning and the key issues addressed to provide consideration for similar pieces of work at local level.

• The UN has developed The Compendium of Digital Government Initiatives in response to the COVID-19 to capture emerging trends in digital responses of UN Member States against the COVID-19 pandemic, and provide a preliminary analysis of their main features
• The Health System Response Monitor (HSRM) collects and organises up-to-date information on the responses of health systems and also captures wider public health initiatives
• New Zealand’s Independent Review of COVID 19 Clusters in Aged Residential Care Facilities which provides lessons on care facilities for the elderly and recommendations for improvements
• Korea’s COVID-19: Testing Time for Resilience which includes information on holding elections during COVID-19
• Consideration of how to learn lessons through debrief, assessing performance and peer review

COVID-19 has impacted every level of an organisation. Engaging with people within your organisation and those closely associated with it, to show appreciation of people's work and resilience helps to boost morale. Consider how to show your appreciation through:

• Public appreciation posts in the form of newsletters, blogs or videos to thank staff and stakeholders, such as this tribute to The University of Manchester community
• Tangible rewards- these don't need to be financial (e.g. a bonus) but may be in the form of extra time holidays, and could be recognised as mental health days to give employees a much-needed break while they juggle responsibilities

Renewal through Place requires consideration of transformation of where we live, available infrastructure, health and care systems, businesses, and neighbourhoods. We bring together some of the core issues related to Renewal through Place, concerning Relocation and Regeneration and the relationships this has with navigating, experiencing and utilising Place post COVID-19.

Follow the source link below to read this case study in full (p.18-20).

TMB 24 outlined our thinking on what the renewal of People might entail and this briefing argues that Places play an integral role in Renewal. Renewal may focus on healthier communities and equitable access to critical goods, services and amenities. This requires place-based economic planning to revitalise commercial development and employment opportunities.

Read this briefing in full by following the source link below to TMB 25 (p.2-8).

Green spaces have become fundamental to people's physical and mental wellbeing through COVID-19, especially during periods of lockdown. Increased use of these spaces requires some adaptations to green space management to ensure the recovery of both people and the environment. Consider:

• Campaigns to make the public aware that many green spaces and parks in the UK are run by local volunteers - and that the limited funding and capacity means that essential services such as waste collection are limited and the public can help by taking their litter home with them to not cause litter issues
• Campaigns to boost volunteer numbers to help the maintenance of green spaces
• Increased signage in local green spaces to remind people that they can help protect their local ecosystems in times where green spaces are seeing increased human traffic by:
  • Sticking to paths to avoid disturbing woods and meadows
  • Not disturbing deadwood as this is vital to local ecosystems
  • Not removing anything from the green space
  • Taking litter home

Mobile home residents face a number of health and environmental challenges that have been exacerbated during the pandemic. Residents face compounding health issues as mobile homes are difficult to keep warm in winter and cool in summer. Heating and ventilation costs can also create financial burdens which can have negative health impacts - especially as many people living in mobile homes have lower incomes and face job insecurity. This demographic also face increased risk due to site locations and occupancy agreements. In the UK, many mobile home sites are at risk of flooding and storm damage due to their proximity to water. To combat this, residents are normally asked to leave for 6 weeks of the year- during storm season. During COVID-19 this creates a number of issues as movement of people during these 6 weeks is a huge infection risk. The UK government has therefore requested that sites remain open for those using mobile homes as their primary residence. Consider:

• Emergency planning for extreme weather events/ COVID-19, including COVID-safe evacuation plans
• Increased community liaison and communication to share evacuation plans clearly to residents so they are able to prepare and act quickly and safely
• Identify local COVID-secure emergency accommodation in case evacuation of residents is needed
• Increase community liaison during periods of extreme heat to ensure residents are able to stay safe, especially during periods of lockdown, shielding or quarantine
• Provide clear information to residents in multiple languages and have multi-lingual community health visitors to ensure health and wellbeing information is translated

Well-being hubs strategically placed across a location could build on successful initiatives already delivered by the voluntary sector. Such hubs can be used to tackle health inequalities, and help reduce the rise in mental health issues due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Hubs would ideally offer face-to-face support, and would have to ensure COVID-19 safety measures. Hubs may support:

• Health services during the COVID-19 pandemic and relieve pressures on the system through partnership working between healthcare providers, local councils, housing and the voluntary sector e.g. The Hubs in Wakefield, West Yorkshire, relieve pressure on primary care - in six months The Hubs have seen almost 2,000 people including 636 urgent referrals
• Preventative health and wellbeing policies that protect people and reduce potential strains on health and social care services
• Social prescribing, whereby local agencies can refer people to a Link Worker who support people in focusing on 'what matters to me' and taking a holistic approach to health and wellbeing. They connect people to community groups and statutory services for practical and emotional support

COVID-19 has shed new light on the way in which countries respond to, and recover from emergencies. This includes COVID-19 specific advice and broader lessons about emergency preparedness and management. For example, previous guidance on volunteer management has traditionally assumed a point of convergence at a disaster site, while this still holds true for many emergencies e.g. floods, lessons from COVID-19 demonstrate that volunteer management may also be dispersed, large-scale and without face-to-face contact. Consider how lessons from COVID-19 may help to revise emergency plans:

• Conduct a 'stock take' of current emergency guidance, and consider what may be missing or no longer fit for purpose
• Implement debriefs, peer reviews and impact assessments, drawing on expertise from local government and emergency practitioners, to evaluate how well current guidance worked and where it needs revising
• Consider that emergency planning must remain relevant to specific types of emergencies, but that broader lessons from COVID-19 can help strengthen guidance e.g. issues of inclusion such as gender, ethnicity, sexuality; health and socio-economic disparities and vulnerabilities; volunteering capacity; supply chain stability; green agenda; and partnerships arrangements
• Draw on resources beyond government guidance from global networks e.g. Resilient Cities Network's revised toolkit which builds recovery from COVID-19 into a wider resilience agenda for a safe and equitable world, and resources from International Organization for Standardization (ISO) which is developing new recovery standards in light of COVID-19 lessons (ISO 22393)

Many cities have been severely impacted by the pandemic due to inadequate access to basic services, healthcare, and adequate accommodation. Lessons from the pandemic can be used to reimagine city design and deploy solutions that can build health, equity and climate resilience. Areas with high deprivation have been hardest hit by COVID and are more susceptible to other emergencies. Steps made pre-pandemic in Rotterdam to improve the region of BoTu, a densely populated area and one of the most deprived in the Netherlands, offers lessons for recovery and renewal from COVID-19:

• Tackle climate change, social and economic challenges and resilience building in one overarching plan due to the crosscutting nature of COVID-19 and its impacts
• Consider partnerships that link multiple services with households such as Go BoTu, a collective comprising doctors, health workers, teachers, local business people, and community workers that help involve local people in city planning and wider resilience measures e.g. workers replacing heating systems with environmentally friendly alternatives in BoTu will be trained to identify households with other needs, such as debt counselling
• Expand the use of green spaces to meet community needs e.g. more sports fields or cycle lanes. Use community capacity for building and renovation work to stimulate the local economy
• Climate change adaptability will depend on greater water absorbance to prevent flooding, consider how the city stores rainwater and how stored water can be used

Alongside the health and environmental risks, COVID-19 has exposed the vulnerability of current economic models. Circular economies are those that produce significantly reduced waste with the aim of producing zero through sharing, reusing and recycling products and byproducts - and the circular economy is becoming increasingly relevant during COVID-19. Consider:

• Developing more 'pay for service' models that do not require people to own goods in times of financial uncertainty e.g. using launderettes rather than having the burden of owning a washing machine provides alternatives to manage consumption, either by reducing expenditure, or opting for the basic alternative. These can be designed to support social distancing and COVID-19 measures
• Redefining and classifying what is considered essential if resources are limited or strained in order to prioritise needs. The circular economy may require redefining and rethinking the importance of certain roles, tasks, products and services e.g. the shift in perceptions of those in retail or waste management have been classified as essential workers
• Focus on local supply chains. Local supply chains can be more environmentally friendly and can also be more secure. De-globalization is a clear post COVID-19 trend. World trade is expected to contract between 13% and 32% in 2020, which indicates reliance on international supply chains may be seen as riskier than sourcing products and components locally
• Incentivize businesses, big and small, to become part of the circular economy e.g. encouraging businesses to take more responsibility for providing reusable facemasks to their staff, or supporting projects which aim to clean up and protect ecosystems from plastic waste such as disposable gloves and masks

The impacts of COVID-19 have seen millions of children worldwide lose months of face-to-face education with their teachers at school. Globally, children continue to be sent home from school due to outbreaks or face complete school closure. The availability of adequate digital technology and internet access at home has a huge impact on the ability of children to engage in e-learning. The rapid shift to e-learning prompted by the pandemic has resurfaced long-standing issues of inequality, including the digital divide once bridged by schools. Consider:

• Shortening online lessons by a small margin to create a space for one-to-one discussions or problem solving with tutors that are often missing when lessons go online
• Household disparities in access to the internet and technology and the impacts this may have on girls. If there is competition in the home over resources it may be that the male child is given priority access while girls are increasingly asked to support with domestic chores rather than complete school work. Consider how schools can be supported in providing technology or access to technology to vulnerable children
• Ensure teachers are trained to use new technology for online teaching. This includes making use of more innovative modes of engagement beyond a lecture e.g. interactive voting, message boards etc.

Middle managers and leaders are central points of contact for people returning to work and their roles are particularly important as the pandemic continues but people return to work. However, it is vital that managers have the tools to support their own well-being as well as their team's, and that they have adequate support from senior leadership. Since COVID, middle managers are being asked to make hundreds of daily decisions in a time of uncertainty. They have the responsibility of sharing and promoting decisions and strategies that may be ambiguous or that they even disagree with. Consider:

• Conversations between middle and senior leaders that helps to remove as many unknowns as possible through clear guidelines. Ensure managers know what they are (and are not) responsible for in terms of decision-making and providing wider support
• Whether there is sufficient wellbeing support for all staff to relieve middle managers of additional roles. Ensure managers are clear on available support networks in the organization and what they offer e.g. occupational health
• Provide training on holding 'confident conversations' about difficult topics e.g. mental health, risk assessments, managing people with different needs, and providing more emotional support

Train managers in available information such as the NHS’s: Making health and wellbeing vital in conversations guidance and wellbeing coaching questions - for managers. The Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development's (CIPD) offers: How to help your team thrive at work

Many smaller retailers have less digital capabilities, and it is these skills which can help smaller business survive the pandemic. The loss of smaller retailers will inhibit the economic recovery at the local and national level. Consider how to encourage partnerships between larger and smaller companies to help accelerate digital transformation for small business owners:

• Offer digital solutions to support infrastructure development of small business to establish brands via mobile apps and digital menu applications for consumers. Additionally, develop simple online supply platforms for small and medium-sized business e.g. Menu in Brazil and MiMercado in Mexico
• Encourage financial inclusion through affordable financial products and services. Consideration may be given to the development of local fintech services and partnerships that extend credit to small retailers to help save businesses and make them more competitive
• Encourage collaborative platforms to share knowledge between well-established, experienced companies and vulnerable business e.g. Movimento Nós in Brazil an initiative created by eight of the main food and beverage companies in the country (Coca-Cola, Heineken, Nestlé etc.) to help 300,000 small businesses employing one million people, to get through COVID-19 and guarantee their reopening when possible. This will support the recovery of smaller supply chains and encourage customers and suppliers, which in turn will continue to have a positive impact on global supply chain recovery

We bring together some of the core issues for the renewal of people, topics which can be considered in terms of Reconciliation, Reparation and/or Repair depending on the degree of harm caused.

Follow the source link below to TMB Issue 24 to read this case study in full (p.23-25).

We argue that Reparation is only one step in the process of helping people recover and move forward from COVID-19. An approach which considers Reparation and Reconciliation is required to build trust, and encourage healing in, and between individuals, communities, organisations and levels of government.

Follow the source link below to TMB Issue 24 to read this briefing in full (p.2-12).

Many people may be concerned about the rising cases in some areas and the risks of returning to work. So, the return to workplaces, including the risks this may pose to people’s health, may cause anxiety due to a heightened sense of risk of COVID-19 infection and uncertainty. Consider how new routines may be developed to avoid people becoming overwhelmed. Consider:

• Regular team meetings and debriefs to discuss anxieties about returning to work and any concerns or learning that may arise
• Allocating dedicated ‘buddies’ to support colleagues at work. These people could be from other departments to support confidentiality, and have specific training on helping people to manage their anxieties, on the organisations’ process and plans for safe working, and additional services staff may want to access
• Clear and simple protocols that outline how workplaces will keep employees safe and any workplace adaptations that have taken place
• Accessible ‘Frequently Asked Questions’ sections on organisations’ websites to provide answers to the most common concerns, including signposting to other relevant services such as health and wellbeing support at work
• Providing opportunities for e-learning or training on managing anxiety about returning to work and COVID-safe practices in the workplace
• Surveying staff to understand their enthusiasm for returning to work and addressing concerns raised

The scale of COVID-19 requires information to the shared across countries and regions effectively. Consider how your organization can contribute to open data sets such as The Living Repository and the 'OECD - GOVLAB- Call for Evidence: Use of Open Government Data in COVID-19 Outbreak'. Consider contributing or using open data to identify:

• COVID-19 cases, individuals at risk, and forecasting future scenarios, including disease spread/contraction, and possible treatments for those infected
• Availability and demand for supplies, locating and connecting actors with medical supplies
• Whether communities adhere to guidelines and recommendations outlined by health authorities
• Public perceptions and how restrictions are affecting well-being, including crime e.g. the rise in domestic violence and child abuse
• Whether efforts are efficient, transparent, meet needs, and do not violate democracy, privacy, ethics or fundamental human rights
• Misinformation including accuracy, speed and scale of fact-checking
• How, where, and when lockdowns are lifted
• How the pandemic affects those who live and travel outside their country of national origin
• The most effective forms of aid to those most vulnerable to the pandemic's economic shocks
• The risks and challenges workers face to their health and safety and the protections available
• The impact on the ability of students and workers to meet learning and training outcomes
• Institutions most likely to close as a result of the pandemic and providing support
• The pandemic's effect on climate-related activities, global emissions, energy usage, and wildlife
• Disruptions caused by confinement measures on the economy e.g. analysing data on supply chains, trade, impacts on inclusive growth

Vulnerable people and people with disabilities are most at risk during disasters. The impacts of COVID-19 have exacerbated the risk to vulnerable people and people with disabilities, and has exacerbated the risks for marginalised groups of people. Consider assessing:

• How well evacuation plans incorporate vulnerable people and people with disabilities. This should include consideration of compounding impacts on at risk groups from COVID-19, and new vulnerable groups such as those with new underlying health conditions from contracting the virus
• The inclusiveness of disaster preparedness activities e.g. the accessibility of hygiene facilities, and accessibility of early warning messaging for those with disabilities, in poverty or with limited access to information
• The availability of alternative evacuation accommodation (rather than mass shelters) for particularly vulnerable people, where specialised care can be provided

While humour is not readily identifiable with disaster risk management, it has been shown as a useful tool to:

• Engage the audience, breaking through boredom
• Enable new ideas to emerge
• Invite people to change their frames of reference
• Creates a safe space to be candid and innovative
• Envision how things can go wrong/could change

One means of sensitively using humour is through cartoons. From week 13 of the speaker series, "Cities on the Frontline", the World Bank and the Global Resilient Cities Network commissioned cartoonists to create cartoons that represented the weekly theme to create cartoons that engage webinar participants differently. Consider how to sensitively use humour through outputs like cartoons to:

• Augment frank discussions about risk, meaningful engagement, and provide a safe space for respectful disagreement
• Explain information to individuals who may not have the technical experience in disasters e.g. there is often an expectation that communities who at risk are making decisions the same way that technical specialists do, yet, most individuals who are at risk in a floodplain, for instance, derive some benefit from living there. Thus, there are different decision-making factors to consider. Cartoons can help change the frame of reference for both risk specialists and communities
• Highlight potential problems. Cartoons can serve as metaphors, helping participants to see their role or project in a new light
• Provide non aggressive commentary on particular situations, especially those which are sensitive
• Encourage participatory discussions by depicting ideas at their extreme logical conclusions, or challenging positions or proposals to inspire dialogue about risk

In the USA, Black Communities are amongst some of the hardest finically hit communities as a result of the economic fallout from COVID-19. Recovery to date has shown to neglect women, Latino and Black Americans. Similar patterns are seen globally, with marginalised and already vulnerable groups being hit the hardest economically. Like many countries, this is a result of pervasive existing inequalities in access to income, assets, health, education, formal employment, equal opportunity, social protection, internet and public services. Consider:

• Explicitly acknowledging the heightened economic vulnerabilities of specific socioeconomic groups - and address these with targeted measures
• How to encourage broad public participation and collective action in government planning and response to effectively address existing inequalities and the needs of vulnerable populations as well as minimise elite capture and urban bias
• How policies should account for constraints faced by specific marginalized groups in terms of economic recovery such as job precarity, lack of education, low wages
• That economic recovery programmes that do not address these inequalities run the risk of reinforcing and deepening inequalities into the future which can burden economies and health systems
• Assessing funding proposals for their impact on different societal groups

Children have been particularly impacted by COVID-19 restrictions, so continuing to provide child-friendly events is an important way to safeguard their well-being. Consider how and what advice to provide to the public to make celebrations such as Halloween and Bonfire Night COVID-19 safe. Consider widely publicising the safety concerns of some activities such as trick or treating and firework parties, and provide ideas for low risk alternatives. Consider suggesting:

Halloween

• Virtual trick or treat parties or costume parties
• Carving or decorating pumpkins with members of your household and displaying them
• Having a scavenger trick-or-treat hunt with your household members in or around your home
• Look for community events focused on safe ways to have fun e.g. children can colour in Halloween posters and display them in a window at home so, on Halloween children can get dressed up and look for posters in their local area and get a treat from their guardian for each poster spotted - ensuring social distancing and 'the rule of six'

Bonfire night

• Instead of putting on fireworks displays, consider lighting up local landmarks at certain times. In Dudley, UK the council intends to honour NHS workers by also lighting up hospitals. The display is also accompanied by music played on local radio stations
• Consider secret firework displays which are planned at undisclosed locations to avoid crowds gathering - providing locations to ensure full area coverage
• Livestream displays on social media
• Heighten awareness of firework safety as COVID-19 restrictions may result in more firework displays at homes. Promote following the firework code and relevant COVID-19 restrictions

The COVID-19 pandemic has produced a huge amount of information from a variety of sources, not least on the rules for local lockdown. In the UK, COVID-19 rules vary depending on whether you live in England, Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland. In addition, millions of people are also affected by local restrictions. In Greater Manchester, for example, these restrictions have differed between metropolitan boroughs. The BBC have created a webpage 'Local lockdown rules: Check Covid restrictions in your area' that provides an example of how to support the public in finding information about COVID-19 restrictions in their areas, or areas of interest, through postcode searches. This helps to provide information about restrictions in individuals' locations and that of their friends, family or workplaces.

Research has shown that disasters impact men and women differently. While COVID-19 has been shown to disproportionately affect men physically, women are more likely to be adversely impacted by disasters generally, and more likely to be failed by recovery efforts that do not meet their needs. Consider how to develop gender-inclusive disaster recovery that considers impacts of COVID-19:

• Tackle the drivers of gender inequalities in areas such as access to healthcare and economic recovery e.g. impacts of COVID-19 on low paid precarious work, health risks to care workers
• Include multi-stakeholder processes that ensure women's rights organisations are included in designing national response and recovery measures - this should also include groups representing vulnerable or marginalised women
• Assess bid for new funding using an additional criteria of impact on gender responsiveness
• Increase funding and capacity development for local and national women's groups; including for action against gender-based violence which saw a global increase during the pandemic
• Strengthen COVID-19/disaster responses to address women's leadership roles, not only their vulnerability to the virus
• Examine the availability of gender-responsive health services and vital sexual and reproductive health needs at local level
• Consider communications designed for women, to reach women. Women and girls may be less likely to receive and contribute to accurate COVID-19 information due to patriarchal norms/structures
• Include the voices and rights of trans women in response and recovery so they are equally involved in determining needs

In the UK, war veterans attending Remembrance Sunday commemorating the deaths of those in the armed forces across the Commonwealth, will be exempt from new laws restricting gatherings. Many of these people are vulnerable to COVID-19 as a result of age or underlying health conditions which has meant many local councils cancelling parades and church services; urging people to pay their respects in other ways and at home this year. Consider:

• If parades take place in your area how to ensure:
  • Rigorous risk assessments are carried out, including the enforcement of social distancing
  • That the event does not draw much larger crowds, and what contingencies are in place if this happens
  • That people, especially elderly and vulnerable veterans understand the risks posed to them by participating in a parade
  • That PPE is provided for event organisers and participants
• If parades do not take place consider designating a period of a few weeks for people to pay their respects and lay wreaths at memorials, rather all on one day
• Live stream local events that include small select parties of individuals laying wreaths e.g. in Bradford where parades are cancelled, The Lord Mayor will lay a wreath at each memorial site across the district
• Encourage residents to pay their respects at home in different ways:
  • By observing the national two-minute silence
  • Displaying poppies or other symbols (posters, children’s drawings etc.) in home windows
  • Using hashtags on social media such as #Bradfordremembers with pictures of acts of remembrance at home or school

COVID-19 has resulted in food shortages in certain parts of the world due to disrupted supply chains. The compounding impacts of poor harvests as a result of climate change requires the adoption of new farming techniques to protect the environment and lives and livelihoods. Conservation agriculture promotes minimal soil disturbance, crop diversification and the use of organic fertilizer to conserve and improve the soil, and makes more efficient use of natural resources. It is therefore climate-smart from an adaptation as well as mitigation viewpoint. Consider:

• Introducing environmentally friendly legislation and incentives. In the UK, the Agriculture Bill is reforming farming to provide subsidies not simply for cultivating land (which is the current EU approach) but for delivering "public goods" e.g. sequestering carbon in trees or soil, enhancing habitat with pollinator-friendly flowers
• Moving beyond a model of short-term farming subsidies e.g. through stronger legislative commitments to long term funding, domestic environmental and animal welfare standards, and safeguards on import standards
• How to promote the benefits of conservation agriculture for farmers including financial savings that can be made due to less use of machinery, labour and pesticides
• Using digital technologies to disseminate important information on how to limit post-harvest losses, and improve better access markets and financial services
• Encouraging the public to continue to 'buy local' during the pandemic (e.g. through farms practicing conservation agriculture), as this supports local, sustainable food supply chains

Dr Marianne Sensier and Professor Fiona Devine, The University of Manchester, analyse economic resilience in UK regions and recommend additional policy measures to address the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19.

To read this briefing in full follow the source link below to TMB Issue 23 (p.2-6).

Compound disaster pose a serious risk during the pandemic, which requires a dual focus on the constant threat of COVID-19 to people’s health and to economies, and on natural disasters. The compound nature of natural disasters and COVID-19 intensifies the scale and broadens the scope of human, social, economic and environmental impacts[1]. Disasters have continued to rise year on year. In 2019, EM-DAT recorded 396 natural disasters globally, that led to 11,755 deaths, affected 95 million people, and resulted in 103 billion US$ in economic losses across the world. Floods were the deadliest type of disaster accounting for 43.5% of deaths, followed by extreme temperatures at 25% (mainly due to heat waves in Europe) and storms at 21.5%. Storms affected the highest number of people, accounting for 35% of the total people affected[2].

This trend has continued, 2020 is on course to be the hottest year on record[3] - impacts of this have been witnessed in parts of Africa and the Middle East where crops have been devastated by locust swarms that begun breeding several months earlier than normal due to weather conditions[4]. Of the 132 unique extreme weather events that have occurred in 2020 (as of late September), 92 have overlapped with the COVID-19 pandemic[5].

Learning from two cases: Vanuatu and Bangladesh

A recent example of a large scale disaster during COVID-19 is the category 5 Tropical Cyclone (TC) Harold that struck Vanuatu on 5 April 2020, affecting over 130,000 people (approx. 43% of the population) and resulting in three deaths. TC Harold caused significant damage to schools, medical facilities, homes, agricultural crops, telecommunications and the local boat fleet[6]. More vulnerable groups such as women were reportedly dealing with multiple concurrent crises, namely drought, scarcity of portable water, volcanic ash, acid rain and sulphur gas as there are also several active volcanoes[7].

While Australia did provide humanitarian aid, strict protocols were implemented when delivering supplies to minimise any chance of transmission to Vanuatu[8], and to date there are no, nor have been any cases of COVID-19 in Vanuatu[9]. However, much of the humanitarian support was offered remotely which demonstrates a shift in how aid is provides e.g. aerial surveillance to assess the scale of impact, logistics support to release relief items that were locally pre-positioned.

The cyclone that hit Bangladesh in May 2020 presents the opposite scenario. The impacts of cyclone Amphan were lessened by decades of disaster risk reduction strategies and a weakening of the storm as it made landfall, which meant the death toll was in the dozens rather than thousands[10]. However, the large number of COVID-19 cases in Bangladesh had serious ramifications for ‘normal’ disaster response. Coastal communities in the path of the cyclone had to make choices between braving the cyclone’s impacts as it hit land, and risking COVID-19 infection as 2.2 million people in Bangladesh were evacuated to shelters[11].

The combination of these cases – heavy impact on people and resources from a natural disaster, combined with high COVID-19 infection rates – demonstrate the worst case for which emergency planners and the humanitarian community need to plan. Going forward, disaster affected countries will be impacted by limitations faced globally, as countries contend with COVID-19 and the impacts this has on their own health systems and economies, and the impacts of this on offers of humanitarian aid. Additionally, logistical support, made more complex by travel restrictions and pressures on global supply chains for resources also needs to be considered, for example:[12]

• Impacts of restricting travel on providing and receiving support, including legislation to override COVID-19 restrictions for assistance
• Implications for efficient response if 14 day isolation periods are required e.g. if dispatching urgent search and rescue teams; how do you choose between saving people from a collapsed building or (re)infecting a community with COVID-19?
• Availability of reliable partnerships for international support including financing, mutual aid and personnel when many countries’ own health systems and economies are under huge strain
• Availability of appropriate protective equipment for all personnel deployed to support a humanitarian effort, including those working in-country
• Pressures on internal mobilization of resources, including the health system which is required for first response to both COVID and disasters
• Risk of infection during evacuations while travelling to and from evacuation centres and residing there

Despite these challenges there are measures which can help countries better prepare for compound COVID-19 disasters. Consider how to:

• Reconceptualise all disaster response as simultaneous COVID-19 response and mitigation of virus transmission
• Develop strategies that incorporate both climate change adaptation and reducing global health threats, by building COVID-19 into disaster risk reduction strategies. Use pre-existing resources such as the Disaster Resilience Scorecard for Cities, and it’s related Public Health Addendum[13], or the UN’s Build Back Better approach[14]
• Partner with disaster risk reduction and emergency planning organisations to integrate health management and disaster management
• Integrate data on COVID-19 and disasters to inform early warning systems, and invest resources into upgrading and expanding systems to manage complex situations
• Deliver preparedness messaging about disasters and other diseases, alongside COVID-19 advice, to keep issues at the forefront of people’s minds and to ensure communities have up-to-date information about mitigating risks posed to them, and the support services available[15]
• Build an understanding based on expertise and skills guided by science, while also building capacity in communities to better understand the hazards of a double disaster and plan collective action[16]
• Keep messaging simple. COVID-19 messaging is already fraught with confusion and misinformation, detailing the risks from other hazards may doubly confuse people if not done in a simple way

The influences of climate change has resulted in disasters which have become seasonal, reoccurring and protracted. This, combined with COVID-19 results in compound disasters that are continually unravelling, which blurs the lines between response, recovery, preparedness, and prevention[17]. It is therefore important to consider humanitarian assistance for a world that is facing two chronic challenges; COVID-19 and climate change.

References:

[1] https://www.sheltercluster.org/sites/default/files/docs/tc_harold_and_covid-19_vanuatu_recovery_strategy_v3_130820.pdf

[2] https://www.cred.be/publications

[3] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/27/meteorologists-say-2020-on-course-to-be-hottest-year-since-records-began

[4] http://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/en/info/info/index.html

[5] https://media.ifrc.org/ifrc/press-release/least-51-6-million-people-doubly-hit-climate-related-disasters-covid-19-new-analysis-ifrc-reveals/

[6] https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/vanuatu/development-assistance/Pages/supporting-cyclone-recovery-reconstruction-vanuatu

[7] https://actionaid.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/STPC-AdvocacyReport2020-FINAL-pages.pdf

[8] https://www.dfat.gov.au/crisis-hub/Pages/tropical-cyclone-harold

[9] https://covid19.gov.vu/

[10] https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/05/south-asia-confronts-double-disaster-cyclone-and-covid-19?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+WRI_News_and_Views+%28WRI+Insights+Blog%2C+News%2C+and+Publications+%7C+World+Resources+Institute%29

[11] https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/05/south-asia-confronts-double-disaster-cyclone-and-covid-19?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+WRI_News_and_Views+%28WRI+Insights+Blog%2C+News%2C+and+Publications+%7C+World+Resources+Institute%29

[12] http://nautil.us/blog/a-warning-from-history-about-simultaneous-disasters

[13]https://www.unisdr.org/campaign/resilientcities/assets/toolkit/documents/Disaster%20Resilience%20Scorecard_Public%20Health%20Addendum%20Ver1%20Final_July%202018.pdf

[14] https://www.unisdr.org/files/53213_bbb.pdf

[15] https://www.bnhcrc.com.au/hazardnotes/79

[16] https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/05/south-asia-confronts-double-disaster-cyclone-and-covid-19?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+WRI_News_and_Views+%28WRI+Insights+Blog%2C+News%2C+and+Publications+%7C+World+Resources+Institute%29

[17]https://www.sheltercluster.org/sites/default/files/docs/tc_harold_and_covid19_vanuatu_recovery_strategy_v3_130820.pdf

Computers and other digital devices are increasingly being used to teach children, and as part of children's education into today's digital economy. However, research shows that technology's impact on student learning has remained limited, partly because the rapid adoption of technology has not been accompanied by appropriate training of teachers. COVID-19 has demonstrated the importance of digital technologies. It is important that teachers have the capacity and capabilities to use emerging and new technologies, and to impart these skills onto students as they will be required to navigate and work in a digital world. Consider:

• How to develop partnerships between schools and the technology industry to help teachers develop the skills they need to educate children effectively
• How to offer and encourage teachers to undertake additional qualifications to support the curriculum e.g. Fujitsu's Certificate of Digital Excellence (CoDE) which is a free, online learning experience for teachers, which helps educate them on topics such as Artificial Intelligence, cyber Virtual Reality, Big Data and Programming and Robotics. Each of these has been recognised as a technology or skill needed by the next generation to help with their future careers

Guest briefing by Dr. Su Anson and Dr. Katrina Petersen, Trilateral Research and Inspector Sue Swift, Lancashire Constabulary, prompts thinking on risk communication approaches in the context of COVID-19 and how the public can be active agents in their own response. The authors focus on: Identifying goals and outcomes; developing the message; channels for two-way engagement; and evaluating communications effectiveness.

Follow the source link below to TMB Issue 22 to read this briefing in full (p.2-7)

The Covid-19 pandemic has reinforced the importance of protecting biodiversity to prevent future zoonosis outbreaks. Communities, especially indigenous communities have been shown to consistently outperform governments as the most effective custodians of nature, and offer the knowledge and expertise to mitigate climate and biodiversity crises. However, research in 42 countries found that while many countries recognise the rights of indigenous and local peoples, they have not implemented laws to secure and protect those rights and ensure territory is not used in a dangerous way. Consider how to best work with local communities to support the protection of green spaces by:

• Committing to legal processes that secure the rights of indigenous people and the protection of green spaces
• Investing in the countries and communities that are ready to scale up land rights to affordably and effectively protect ecosystems and biodiversity e.g. mitigating deforestation and coastal erosion, and supporting sustainable fishing
• Reduce poverty and exclusion through improved land rights and access to green spaces, to help build resilient societies and secure livelihoods which can mitigate compounding inequities exacerbated by COVID-19
• Scaling up attempts to secure land rights in territories that have yet to be recognised by states

Research by University College London (UCL) suggests that confidence in understanding coronavirus lockdown restrictions varies greatly across the UK and has dropped significantly since early national measures were put in place in March. As part of their ongoing research UCL determine that people generally consider themselves compliant with restrictions, but UCL caution that this should be interpreted in light of previous reports that show understanding of guidelines are low; therefore possibly reflecting belief in compliance opposed to actual compliance levels. Consider how to ensure residents in lock areas understand the rules that apply to them:

• Make direct contact with resident via social or traditional media, messaging apps, or leafleting through doors to ensure people understand their local restrictions. This may be especially important in combined authority areas as restrictions differ across metropolitan boroughs, the boundaries of which may not be clear to residents
• Encourage the display of digital tools showing local information about which restrictions apply in certain areas. This may be a simple video, or an interactive tool which people could access through localised digital marketing on their smartphones
• Consider where local, clear information could be publicly displayed e.g. digital advertising boards at local bus stops, or localised social media and television adverts
• Consider the demographics, resources and capacities of each community to establish the most appropriate methods of dissemination and key actors who could support this. In Mexico, this included: Video and audio messages shared via WhatsApp; audio messages transmitted via loudspeakers; and banners in strategic locations

Research into MNCH demonstrates that early-life determinants of health help create more resilient societies. Previous trends indicate that socioeconomic shocks lead to an increase in markers of poor MNCH including low birthweight, maternal and infant malnutrition, and maternal drug or alcohol misuse etc. These factors can have impacts across a person's life and effects the next generation. At particular risk are people from Black, Asian, or minority ethnicities who are more likely to be socio-economically disadvantaged, and at higher risk of pre-existing health conditions, contracting COVID-19, and having poor markers of MNCH. Consider:

• Research and data collection to monitor the immediate and longer-term effect of COVID-19 and related socioeconomic crisis on MNCH, using routine data collection systems and reinstating systems that have been suspended during COVID-19 e.g.:
  • the short, medium, and longer-term consequences of COVID-19 on neurocognitive development in children
  • disruptions as a result of COVID-19 e.g. on food insecurity, access to health services and impacts on MNCH
• Investment of resources into promotion of early-childhood health and development, including the training and provision of community health workers
• Promotion of MNCH care as an essential service and human right, including investment to access to contraception/reproductive health services, antenatal/postnatal care, and child health etc
• Strengthen community-based interventions to promote MNCH, such as home visits during and after pregnancy and in the early years
• Develop new policies to drive gender equity and reduce the penalties of motherhood e.g. parental leave for each parent on a use it or lose it basis

Organisations should carefully consider the impacts on staff of re-entry into the workplace. Understanding the mental and physical condition of staff can help organisations to prepare accordingly. Some staff be enthusiastic about returning to the office, others may not want to return, and others may want to theoretically return to work but have anxieties about the risks to their health and the health of loved ones. Consider steps to include staff in strategic planning for a return to work including the need to:

• Ask staff if they are able to return to the office, or if there are not able to return - rather than assume that everyone should return
• Regularly survey employees so you understand the anxiety levels in your organisations - seek to identify and remedy practical concerns
• Understand why some staff may not wish to return, whether this is because they are in high-risk groups, or have other challenges such as reliable childcare
• Make the return to work planning processes transparent. Include staff in these processes and communicate to staff who is working on the plan in your organisations, how they are thinking about it, and when announcements will be communicated
• Mitigate uncertainty where possible by sharing what is definitely happening, what is definitely not happening, and when firmer answers can be expected
• Seek feedback from all stakeholders on a regular basis. Consider establishing a task force to process feedback, and set up regular, recurring dialogues with employees
• Clarify how people can get their questions addressed and who will address them

Consider some example plans:

https://www.shearman.com/perspectives/2020/04/key-considerations-in-designing-a-return-to-work-plan-covid-19

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/uk/Documents/human-capital/deloitte-uk-workforce-strategies-for-post-covid-recovery-workbook.pdf

COVID-19 is having an adverse impact on the economy amid the ongoing global climate crisis. Balancing long-term economic recovery and renewal with environmental agendas may be one way to ensure economic growth while mitigating issues such as climate change. One means of achieving this is through renewed commitment from local and national government to invest in, and develop job creation for a low carbon economy. Consider how to encourage low carbon projects including upskilling and training local people in:

• Clean electricity generation and provision of low-carbon heat for homes and businesses e.g. the manufacturing wind turbines, deploying solar PV, installing heat pumps and maintaining energy-system infrastructure
• Installing energy efficiency products ranging from insulation, lighting and control systems
• Providing low-carbon services such e.g. financial, legal and IT, and producing alternative fuels such as bioenergy and hydrogen
• Encouraging low-emission vehicles and the associated infrastructure e.g. electric vehicles, manufacturing batteries, installing electric vehicle charge-points

Many cities have imposed COVID-19 restrictions on the use of public spaces such as social distancing, mask wearing, and number of people allowed to be in a single group to limit the transmission of the virus. Successful implementation of such measures may require additional support from COVID marshals who can provide reassurance to the public and organisations, and help improve compliance with regulations. Organisations that have experience of crowd and people management may have the skills to support the implementation of COVID related restrictions. Consider how trusted events security organisations may be trained to provide COVID marshalling support where needed. This may include:

• Working with supermarkets to protect staff and minimise panic buying; including queue management
• Working in civil contingency roles with local authorities to support town centre patrols in the daytime and night-time economy
• Working with local authorities and law enforcement to help report low level antisocial behaviour and social distance breaches
• Crowd and people management at COVID-19 testing centres

Vaccines are highly perishable and must be kept at very cold, specific temperatures. The majority of COVID-19 vaccines under development will spoil, and need to be discarded, if they are not kept at the right temperature. National and local governments, alongside health systems and the private sector, need to imminently consider their cold chains to avoid unnecessary spoiling of vaccines. The cold chain is a supply chain that can keep vaccines in tightly controlled temperatures from the moment they are made to the moment that they are administered to a person. Preparing the cold chain may take months, so investments into planning and resources now can help expand and support the current vaccine cold chain so it is ready and able to meet the scale of the mass vaccination programmes required. To prepare/scale up the cold chain consider:

• Where vaccines will be produced and transported, and the requirements for transportation including planes and trucks within countries and for distribution abroad
• There are a number of vaccines under development, many of which require different temperatures and handling procedures. Which will be approved first is unknown, therefore to prepare staff when one is approved staff in the cold chain should be trained to handle all possible vaccines to save time and avoid spoilage
• The frequency of deliveries that may be needed to facilities where dispensing will take place. This depends on the refrigeration capacity of health care organizations and hospitals, staffing resources, the locations the vaccines, and the shelf life of the vaccine
• How to expand shipping and storage capacity, including the specialised equipment needed to store vaccines at certain temperatures. Encourage airports and logistics companies to evaluate how well they could meet cold chain requirements

COVID-19 has created a set of scenarios for which no organisation was fully prepared. Learning lessons from the ways in which people and organisations responded to this crisis is vital for improving future responses and for gathering detailed and timely information to inform recovery and renewal activities. Gathering such information can be achieved through conducting activities to learn lessons.

Approaches to learning lessons

Taking a systems approach to learning lessons can ensure all parts of an organisation, operation, or even individual can be considered. One method particularly relevant to crisis management (and previously applied to this context by government) is the Viable Systems Model (VSM)[1]. To learn lessons across the whole system, VSM advises that 5 systems should be considered:

1. Delivery of operations
2. Coordination and communication of operations
3. Management of processes, systems and planning, including audit
4. Intelligence
5. Strategy, vision and leadership

These 5 systems are: broad-based; interconnected; provide a balanced framework of strategic, tactical and operational matters; aim for balance across these systems; and ensure nothing is missed or unduly prioritised at the expense of others[2]. As a result, the systems can support the process of learning lessons by structuring the questions to ask. The questions may go beyond the approach of “what went well/not well, and what do differently next time” and, instead, focus on the capabilities of the system.

Drawing on VSM’s 5 systems, we suggest a single question for ‘improvement’ which can be applied to each system to explore the experience and performance of the response, recovery or renewal[3]:

1. How could we improve our ‘delivery of operations’?
2. How could we improve our ‘coordination and communication of operations’?
3. How could we improve our ‘management of processes, systems and planning, including audit’?
4. How could we improve our provision and use of ‘intelligence’?
5. How could we improve our ‘strategy, vision and leadership’?

Learning lessons can gather information that can be applied while the event is still unfolding[4]. There are number of reasons why gathering lessons need to be done as soon as possible, even as an organisation continues to adapt to COVID-19 conditions. For learning lessons on response to COVID-19 consider[5]:

• The pandemic is still ongoing and waiting until it is over may result in lost institutional memory and learning. While there may be logs of actions and outcomes, the context of these become less meaningful as time goes on and people return to their non-COVI roles
• COVID-19 impacts were swift so there was limited time for organisations to make decisions. Evaluating the actions taken in response will help prepare the next phases and reduce uncertainty whether this is recovery, or a return to a response mode during any second wave
• Understanding how prepared your organisation was for the pandemic is critical, including preparations made once the virus was declared. This will help with future response for health crises and can provide insights into the preparedness and flexibility of the organisation for other types of emergencies

Common issues to be aware of when learning lessons include[6]:

• Scattered or incomplete documentation and contemporaneous evidence. This may have been compiled during the crisis, but not centrally managed meaning it is scattered throughout the organization
• Failure to include external stakeholders in post-event analysis e.g. beneficiaries, partners, customers, investors
• Failure to delegate follow-up actions, including timescales to specific teams or departments with clear deliverables and accountability for actions

Gathering lessons

Lessons can be gathered and learnt in a number of ways, for example, internally within organisations, with external support from other organisations, and from international contexts:

Learning lessons internally

Mechanisms to assess performance and understand lessons learnt internally include impact assessments and debriefs.

• Impact assessments to learn about the strategic effects of COVID-19 but also learn about specific or emerging system-wide needs, inequalities, and opportunities to improve. This is particularly useful in reflectively considering the outcomes of specific actions and how negative consequences can be prevented or minimised. Guidance on conducting impact assessments can be found in The Manchester Briefing on COVID-19 (B15)[7] which relates to UK National Recovery Guidance[8] that describes the process of conducting an Impact Assessment.
• Debriefing to learn lessons is the process by which a project or mission is reported on in a reflective way, typically, after an event. It is a structured process that reviews the actions taken, and lessons learnt from implementing a project, and its subsequent outcomes. However, instead of only being a post-event activity, learning lessons is important for all stages of managing COVID-19 including preparing, responding and recovering. This will track reflections and learning to ensure information and lessons are not lost and to effectively act on this information to improve future activities.

Learning lessons with external support

Mechanisms to learn lessons from external sources can include:

• Peer reviews which may be most useful to provide an opportunity for a host country, region, city or community to engage in a constructive process to reflect on their activities with a team of independent, expert professionals. Peer reviews can encourage conversation, promote the exchange of best practice, and examine the performance of the entity being reviewed to enhance mutual learning. A peer review can be a catalyst for change and provide benefits for both the host and the reviewers by discussing the current situation, generating ideas, and exploring new opportunities to further strengthen activities in their own context. Guidance on conducting peer reviews is available from the International Organization for Standardization (ISO): ISO 22392: Guidelines for conducting peer reviews[9].
• Learning international lessons is also possible from other analogous contexts. The Manchester Briefing collects such lessons and reviewing what other organisations and countries are doing can help to share insights on practices that are worthy of consideration.

Lessons from internal and external sources can help to reflect on practice and continually improve. But identifying lessons bring a responsibility to prepare to do something better next time using those lessons. This is a particular challenge during intense periods when finding the time to stand back to think about learning is just as pressurised as finding the time to plan to do things differently.

References:

[1] Applying systems thinking at times of crisis https://systemsthinking.blog.gov.uk/author/dr-gary-preece/

[2] The Manchester Briefing on COVID-19 (B16): Week beginning 20th July 2020

[3] The Manchester Briefing on COVID-19 (B17): Week beginning 27th July 2020

[4] https://www.willistowerswatson.com/en-US/Insights/2020/05/a-debrief-for-business-continuity-debriefing

[5] https://www.b-c-training.com/bulletin/covid-19-why-you-should-be-conducting-a-debrief-now

[6] https://www.willistowerswatson.com/en-US/Insights/2020/05/a-debrief-for-business-continuity-debriefing

[7]The Manchester Briefing on COVID-19 (B15) www.ambs.ac.uk/covidrecovery

[8] https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-recovery-guidance

[9] https://www.iso.org/standard/50289.html

To inform investment decisions for the future, the Fiji Government worked with the World Bank to develop the country's first ever Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA) to quantify and better understand the threat posed by natural hazards and climate change and to help design climate adaptation and risk management plans. The CVA paved the way for responding to short-term needs while boosting long-term sustainability and resilience. This applies directly to the COVID-19 crisis as the CVA provides a means to assess current, and candidate interventions that could be successful for sustainable economic recovery from COVID-19. Consider how a CVA could be used to:

• Co-opt government programs related to resilience into stimulus measures e.g. national development plans, infrastructure masterplans, or resilience plans already identify interventions that can be cross-checked against a sustainability checklist to determine relevant COVID-19 interventions that address both short and long term needs
• Determine locale-specific priorities for economic stimuli that account for local risks and needs. This may include accelerating interventions that are already expected to be delivered, expanding interventions already underway, or prioritizing interventions that are cross-sectoral e.g. improving agricultural productivity, the reliability of infrastructure, or by reducing energy
• Identify additional economic stimulus, generated from various resilience-building interventions, that could be used to mitigate the economic shocks imposed by the pandemic

During COVID-19 decision makers have grappled with containing outbreaks and how to reopen or reclose business and services based on infection numbers and other measures. Research in Canada has shown that accounting for geography, epidemiology, and travel patterns, localized county approaches to lockdown result in fewer days of service and business closure, and impacts fewer people compared to entire province closures. The research suggests, when implementing a local lockdown, to consider:

• The trigger conditions that require a local lockdown to be enforced and ensure they are agreed with central government but can be enacted upon by local government
• Coordinating with neighbouring counties or metropolitan areas, including the criteria for when and how local lockdowns should be implemented and when a neighbouring region should also lockdown
• Gathering local lockdown lessons that can provide useful insights into compliance of measures, and implementing learning to help avoid ineffective strategies
• Decentralizing control over when a local lockdown should be enforced to ensure local decision makers can enact closures promptly

The compound impacts of COVID-19 and climate change are important examples of disruptive risks that require the renewal of existing risk-management systems and practices. Disruptive risks are defined as unexpected, widespread, protracted, transboundary and novel. To address these requires 'disruptive resilience' whereby the status quo in risk management is disrupted to encourage new and innovative way to enable towns and cities to respond and recover effectively from these risks. Consider how to use new kinds of data, modes of collaboration, financial mechanisms, innovation models and decision-making approaches meet challenges of 'disruptive resilience'. Consider:

• The development community should promote the notion of 'disruptive resilience' to respond to the rise in outlier and extreme events; the shift in established hazard patterns; the increase in multiple, simultaneous crises within single
• Policymakers and authorities need to revise urban risk-management practices, and embrace new kinds of data, collaboration, finance, innovation models and decision making
• Researchers must explore the financial, political, social and behavioural factors that inhibit or enhance disruptive resilience

In the UK, first-person accounts of living through the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic have been collected to better understand how people respond to pandemics and how to help people cope better in the future. This is particularly important if viral epidemics become more common. This type of research can form an important digital archive for future researchers. Consider working with local and academic organisations to develop an online survey to collate people's experiences on:

• How COVID-19 and the measures to control it are affecting and shaping interactions between individuals in society
• The effect of the pandemic on community wellbeing, quality of life and resilience
• The impact of digital technology on community responses to the spread of coronavirus
• The impact of the pandemic on how and where support can be accessed

How people with physical and mental health problems, and disability, and those who are facing inequality or discrimination have been impacted

Since the start of the pandemic there has reportedly been an increase in extremist narratives from a variety of groups. People (including vulnerable people who have been severely socially or economically impacted by the pandemic) are at risk of extremism which creates future security challenges. Organisations should remain vigilant about new and emerging threats to public safety and develop response plans that incorporate risks of extremist behaviour. Consider:

• Local assessments of old and new manifestations of local extremism which may have been exacerbated or triggered by the pandemic. Consider the form it takes, (potential) harm caused, and scale of mitigation or response strategies needed
• Developing interventions for those most susceptible to extremist narratives, this may include new groups e.g. a rise in far right groups, and conspiracy theory groups committing arson on 5G towers as they believe them to be the cause of COVID-19
• Assessing groups which have become more at risk since COVID-19 and increased public protections measures and support for these groups e.g. East Asian and South East Asian (since COVID, hate crimes towards this group has increased by 21%)
• Developing COVID-19 cohesion strategy to help bring different communities together to prevent extremist narratives from having significant reach and influence
• Working with researchers and practitioners to build a better understanding of 'what works' in relation to counter extremism online and offline. This should include consideration of dangerous conspiracy theories, and their classification based on the harm they cause

AI uses computer systems to perform tasks associated with human intelligence. This can be used to help detect and interpret patterns useful for managing emergencies. Explore with AI experts how AI may be used in COVID-19 mitigation, preparation, response and recovery:

• Mitigation: To recognize patterns in the environment to provide early warning e.g. data on compounding factors associated with COVID-19 infection such as urban poverty to provide information on potentially high risk areas
• Preparation: To analyse patterns in natural and social phenomena, and run emergency simulations to develop detailed emergency management plans
• Response and Recovery: To sort situational information from social media, and surveillance cameras (fixed, drones, satellites) to determine where response is needed, and to support coordination of recovery activities

In extraordinary times people turn to their leaders for guidance and reassurance more than ever before. Leading by example helps to unite, connect and guide people in consistently working towards a common goal. Leading by example requires clear, and visible communication of appropriate behaviours. This may include issues such as regular handwashing, adhering to social distancing guidelines, rules on travel, and adhering to isolation and quarantine measures. For example, on facemasks:

• In schools. If headmasters want parents to wear facemasks when they collect children from the playground, then teachers should wear facemasks when they take children into the playground for collection
• In shops. If shops want customers to wear facemasks, then shop workers need to wear facemasks
• In Public. If politicians /police/ local authorities want public to wear facemasks, then they should also do so