Recovery, Renewal, Resilience

Digital technology proved invaluable for much of society and the economy to adapt and cope with the effects of the pandemic. However, the pace of digital transformation has exposed much of the inequalities in accessing and benefiting from the digital economy. For example, during the pandemic, most SMEs adopted basic digital technologies, however, many lack the resources and infrastructure (compared to larger firms) to employ complex digital strategies that could increase growth and productivity. An uneven distribution of digital productivity advantages may accelerate a “K-shaped recovery”, which risks leaving people and places behind. Consider:

• Increase access to digital technology e.g. improve access to broadband and digital devices to provide the technical means for productivity to develop/advance. Where connectivity is “slow, expensive or non-existent”, local governments can address the digital divide and increase access by creating or investing in publicly or privately run local networks, e.g. libraries/public buildings. For example, Toronto city council, Canada:
  • launched the ConnectTo 2021 programme which increases access to affordable, high-speed internet across the city, targeted at underserved communities in the city and;
  • in partnership with a private sector partner will establish a municipal broadband network; expand access to free public Wi-Fi and design a ‘Digital Equity Policy’ to tackle the growing digital divide and support the most vulnerable and marginalized communities in the city.
• Create means by which people can increase their digital skills – training, skills development workshops etc. in collaboration with local partners (local schools, colleges, businesses, voluntary organisations). Creating an eco-system of support to tackle digital inequalities can drive inclusive productivity growth and benefit the whole community
• Implement new strategies for inclusive productivity that consider the advantages of digital technology on the local economy, productivity and community wellbeing. New strategies should be informed by evidence, taking multiple dimensions into consideration e.g. education, business innovation, housing, and infrastructure

Featuring a recent blog written by Abbie Winton, Alliance Manchester Business School

A recent TMB (Issue 33) discussed the gendered economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and presented the recommendations set out in the report produce by the Women and Equalities Committee entitled ‘Unequal impact? Coronavirus and the gendered economic impact’. This previous lesson explored how recovery strategies can address impacts, mitigate the reinforcement of inequalities and how renewal initiatives can transform the position of women in the labour market.

The ability to rapidly transition between jobs can support an individual or household to recover from an economic shock, such as the shock delivered by the pandemic. Occupational segregation refers to the unequal distribution of people across and within certain occupations, based on characteristics such as gender or ethnic background[1]. The pandemic has had disproportionate impacts on women’s experience of work, particularly BAME women, as they are more likely to work in low-paying and informal segregated roles, making them more vulnerable to the economic impacts of the pandemic. Therefore, gender, racial and ethnic inequalities are at risk of being reinforced, exacerbated or created[2].

This week we spotlight a recent think piece written by Abbie Winton, Alliance Manchester Business School[3], which focuses on gender and food retailing. Recognising how gender segregation is embedded in food retail roles, Abbie looks at how this can change e.g. through improving transport links to enable women to access jobs that are currently located in “hard-to-reach” areas:

Gender and food retailing[4]

Supermarket shopping of old has, perhaps, changed forever with demand for online food retailing soaring during the pandemic, growing 25.5% in 2020 compared to the 8.5% previously anticipated[5]. For most food retailers, trading online has long lacked appeal due to the low margins which it offers[6]. However, the pandemic restrictions prompted retailers to expand their dotcom (online) offering almost overnight to both meet demand and stay competitive during a time when customers were restricted in their ability to do their shopping in-store.

To meet the excess demand all of the major retailers took on additional workers, and today new roles are being created in large numbers in distribution and logistics against a backdrop of slowly dwindling numbers of workers serving on the shop floor. However, also characterising these changes are the historical patterns of gender segregation that persist within the sector, despite men moving into retail roles in recent years. Therefore, we need to be asking not just what the food retail sector is likely to look like post-pandemic, but who is likely to remain working in it.

Segregation of food retail work

The move online and growing use of self-checkouts in-store have in part helped facilitate a reduction in the need for checkout staff. These jobs have long been disproportionately filled by women who needed the ‘flexibility’ to manage work alongside caring responsibilities[7].

In contrast, there has already been an expansion of new roles in warehousing, logistics and fulfilment which have traditionally been filled by men and demand hours less likely to suit the needs of the household. For example, an analysis of recent ONS (2021) data shows that 67% of employees working on supermarket shop floors are women, a large proportion of whom are over the age of 45. This figure increases to 70% if you look at checkout and cashier roles specifically.

Female employees from Black, Asian and minority ethnic backgrounds (as defined by the ONS) are five times more likely than white male employees to be working in checkout roles. In contrast to this, the gendering of employees working in the wholesale of food production (including the supply of these goods to supermarkets) is vastly male-dominated (men continue to hold 78% of these roles). These figures show the embeddedness of gender, and racial, segregation in these roles.

Considerations for the future

Although there have been some reductions in the occupational segmentation of retail roles in recent years, changing demands mean the future of work in food retail is likely to reflect the pre-existing patterns of segregation within the sector.

To avoid exacerbating these inequalities, measures are needed to ensure women and minority groups are equipped to enter into new roles in logistics and distribution. To avoid exacerbating these gender inequalities, measures are needed to ensure women are equipped to enter into logistics and distribution; for example, employee-led flexible working arrangements. To approve accessibility to these roles, policy changes will be required, in order to prevent women and minority groups being disproportionately impacted by job loss and remove current barriers (e.g. the burden of caring responsibilities) that prevent women and minority groups from transitioning into new roles.

Research has also shown that women are more likely to rely on public transport to get to work[8] and thus tend to take jobs that are closer to home and schools. However, distribution centres tend to be located in harder-to-reach areas, making these jobs less accessible to women. Therefore, provisions would have to be made to improve transportation routes to these areas both in terms of accessibility and safety.

Secondly, the ‘pick rates’ (the rate of items ‘picked’ by an employee/hours of work[9]) which dictate dotcom work can often be challenging for disabled and older workers to sustain. Reasonable adjustments will be required where necessary to accommodate these groups. Thirdly, employee-led flexible working arrangements and parental leave could allow for an easier transition into this type of work. Therefore, policymakers and businesses should ensure that the jobs which remain do not reinforce the existing inequalities which are endemic to service work and which have been further exacerbated by the current crisis.

This blog is a short extract from an article within ‘On Digital Inequalities’, produced by Policy@Manchester[10].

Wider points for gender-equal recovery and renewal

We conclude this case study by considering the wider points for gender equality in economic recovery. Three key policy areas have been identified in a recent statement from the London School of Economics and Political Science, the International Monetary Fund, EU Central Bank, the World Trade Organisation, the United Nations and the EU Commission, to ensure that “economic recovery prioritises women and girls, underpins an inclusive future, and ensures the world is prepared to withstand the next crisis”[11]. Consider:

• How recovery stimulus, employment, and social protection programmes will “get directly into the hands of women”
• How to develop more effective public policy, e.g. approaches to close the gender data gaps as a priority and new mechanisms to “improve monitoring, evaluation and data systems”
• How to reduce the “burden of unpaid care work and support better childcare to strengthen women’s labour force participation”[12]

[1] https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803100244561

[2] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7205621/

[3] https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/abbie.winton.html

[4] https://www.alliancembs.manchester.ac.uk/original-thinking-applied/original-thinkers/gender-and-food-retailing/

[5] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/may/05/uk-online-grocery-sales-lockdown-internet-coronavirus

[6] https://www.ft.com/content/b985249c-1ca1-41a8-96b5-0adcc889d57d

[7] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1068/a3299

[8] https://wbg.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/TRANSPORT-2019-1.pdf

[9] https://www.hcrlaw.com/blog/warehouse-pick-rates-and-disability/

[10] https://www.policy.manchester.ac.uk/publications/on-digital-inequalities/

[11] https://www.lse.ac.uk/News/News-Assets/PDFs/2021/Statement-on-Gender-Equality-2021.pdf

[12] Ibid.

The pandemic has accelerated the change to shopping habits, triggered economic downturn and changed how people live their lives (e.g. working from home). Evidence provided by "what works centre for local economic growth" prompts thinking as to what types of investment and interventions are likely to be most beneficial when designing recovery plans. The report considers that:

• "Supply side" investments (e.g. shop front renovations) should be supported by investments and policies that target increasing consumer demand
• Education and training to improve the skills profile of local communities can positively impact residents average wages, which will increase spending power and demand for local goods and services
• There is little evidence to support thinking that large department stores/supermarkets ("anchor stores") are of more value that other shops, meaning that balanced and equal support should be provided to protect business continuity of all shops
• Increased levels of working from home is unlikely to instigate large population shifts away from towns and cities and "proposals that are based on the assumption that housing supply and population density will change significantly should provide robust evidence to underpin those assumptions"
• Recovery and renewal proposals/plans which state that "physical or cultural regeneration initiatives will also delver economic growth" should also provide robust evidence as little evidence has shown that investment in new community assets/improved housing quality will deliver local growth

Ethnic minority-owned businesses play a vital role in the UK economy, the FSB reported that 'ethnic minority businesses (EMBs) contributed 25 billion pounds to the UK economy in 2018'. The entrepreneurial characteristics of diverse communities will be crucial for economic recovery. The impacts of the pandemic on EMBs is significant, as they account for a large number of businesses within the sectors closed during national lockdowns (retail, health and social care and hospitality). Consider:

• Invite ethnic minority business owners to discuss how best local government can support and facilitate entrepreneurship and growth post-COVID
• Targeted support programmes for ethnic minority-owned organisations and businesses that provide advice and support for applying for financial assistance, IT and tech support so that they are equipped with the skills and tools needed to recover and renew
• Create an 'inclusive matrix of support, including grants, wage subsidy and micro-loans for small ethnic minority-owned organisations, start-ups and new businesses'. Those businesses that may not have qualified for government financial support schemes introduced during the pandemic
• Go beyond the restricted lens of the 'Business Rate System' and broaden the understanding of how local economies function. This can be done by including 'all sectors, including homeworkers, night time economy, responses to local transport needs and the retail sector, to provide a comprehensive picture of local businesses and economic activity'. Use this to introduce support systems that promote sector diversity, good practice in sustainability, growth and cooperation in economic recovery

The UN reported that Moroccan women accounted for just 21% of the country’s labour force, with 54% of those working concentrated in the informal sector (World Bank estimates 2019). The impacts of the pandemic on these trends are illustrated in a recent UK report by the Women and Equalities Committee. The report highlights that women were ‘a third more likely to be employed in sectors that were “shut down” during the first national lockdown, and thus disproportionately at risk of job loss’. The recommendations set out in this report and a UN Policy Brief prompt thinking as to how recovery strategies can address impacts, mitigate the reinforcement of inequalities and how renewal initiatives can transform the position of women in the labour market. Consider:

• Review schemes that were introduced to protect jobs and income to identify inequalities that may have been exacerbated. Integrate knowledge gained from this review into future crisis planning (e.g. integrate an ‘Equality Impact Assessment’ that will draw on evidence of existing inequalities to inform employment support schemes that may be required during future crises)
• Ensure women are equally represented in the planning and decision-making processes for recovery strategies and renewal initiatives
• Identify how the pandemic has had gendered effects on predominantly female run businesses (e.g. closures of businesses such as hairdressers), and if targeted support may be required as part of recovery planning. Repeat this for other communities/groups to identify whether they have been disproportionately impacted by the effects of COVID-19 and containment measures
• Conduct a gender analysis on recovery strategies and renewal initiatives to ensure that national and local investment plans will not create unequal outcomes for men and women, and reproduce inequalities (e.g. underrepresentation of women in sectors such as ‘science, technology, engineering and maths (STEM)’, which have been targeted for investment globally)
• As part of local and national economic regeneration programmes, ‘fund training schemes specifically aimed at women’ and other minority groups to increase ‘representation and career progression in the Digital, AI and the Green Economy sectors’
• Review policy and legislation around flexible working to ensure they reflect the positive lessons learned on remote and flexible working during the pandemic
• Actively support legislation to expand redundancy protection to protect pregnant women and new mothers
• Recognise that women are not a homogenous groups - review equalities data to ensure that large data sets consider how other factors (e.g. race, class, religion and others) combine to shape the experiences of women in the labour market

People with disabilities are more likely to be unemployed or not in education or training, which makes them more vulnerable to the impacts of the pandemic, including increased risk of poverty. Recovery strategies to address the economic impacts of the pandemic should be disability-inclusive. Consider:

• Review/amend social protection systems to better protect people with disabilities during COVID-19:
  • Raise poverty thresholds to take disability-related additional costs into account
  • Revise the definition of disability in assessment procedures, to ensure they are functioning-based rather than impairment-based
  • Train volunteer community members to support the rapid identification of people with disabilities for social protection or other assistance: these community volunteers are sometimes called 'key informants' (KIs), are knowledgeable about the topic, the local area and the people who live there
• Ensure application procedures for social protection programmes and support services are accessible in the light of COVID-19 social distancing regimes:
  • Include disabled people's organisations when reviewing the accessibility of application processes and when disseminating information about support programmes
  • Adapt application and enrolment procedures to support the inclusion of people with disabilities
  • Provide disability training to programme staff and volunteers, e.g. disability awareness
  • Ensure programme information and application materials are available in a variety of accessible formats, e.g. Braille/videos/simplified text
  • Establish COVID-safe community-based registration services to bring services closer to people, and offer person/home-based assessment procedures for those with mobility limitations
• Ensure methods to deliver social protection services and welfare payments are accessible:
  • Allow welfare payments to be paid electronically or enable people with mobility difficulties to nominate a trusted individual to collect their
  • Ensure service points are physically accessible and within the person's local community
• Ensure employment schemes are adequate and accessible for people with disabilities during COVID-19:
  • Set up employment schemes to actively employ persons with disabilities, integrating such schemes into broader employment recovery schemes, e.g. green recovery
  • Make infrastructure accessible, e.g. buildings and workplaces
  • Introduce unemployment insurance to cover the informal sector, as people with disabilities, in particular women with disabilities, are more likely to be employed in the informal sector where there is an absence of job security, unemployment insurance and paid sick leave

Research shows that young people experience more long-lasting labour market impacts due to economic crises than adults, including being the first to lose jobs, working fewer hours, taking more time to secure quality income, and wage scarring where earning losses recover slowly. The International Labour Organisation reported that 17% of young people employed before the pandemic had stopped working entirely, and 42% reported reduced incomes. Additionally, it is widely reported that it is becoming increasingly difficult to source workers with the right skills in sectors where job opportunities exist. Consider developing youth employment initiatives, aimed at promoting domestic employment, skills development, capacity building and enabling equal access opportunities for vulnerable youth:

• Assess your own organisation’s operations and capacity to understand where youth employment opportunities may be protected or enhanced:
  • Recognise the contribution of people who joined your organisation as young people in entry-level roles and try to ensure that restructures do not remove roles that provide a talent pipeline into your organisation.
  • Monitor for age in any furlough and redundancy plans to ensure young people in your existing workforce are not disproportionately affected
• Map labour market information of unemployed young people such as knowledge, skills and abilities, with potential sectors of employment, including consideration for the supply and demand aspects of the labour market
  • Establish a working plan with employment services centres to support registration, profiling, referral, temporary work placements and on-the-job training
• Collaborate with local government and private and public organisations to establish sectors in which temporary employment opportunities for young people could be created e.g. public works and infrastructure maintenance (Nepal)
• Align vocational education and training aimed at up-skilling young people with employment initiatives such as apprenticeships and work experience programmes
• Provide youth-targeted wage subsidy programmes to help young people enter, re-enter or remain in the labour market by reducing costs of recruitment, retention and training
• Continue to provide careers advice in schools, colleges and universities to help young people navigate their employment options during COVID. Ensure careers advisors understand the current labour market and options open to young people so that they can provide timely advice

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues on, people around the world have been utilising black markets to purchase negative COVID-19 test results to enable them to travel. False negative COVID test certificates have been sold for around $300 USD. Systems which email test results can be easily bypassed by downloading and doctoring documents e.g. changing the date of the test, name and test result. Consider how to manage and mitigate proliferation of false negative test results:

• In Hawaii, only results from approved testing partners will be accepted, and they must be transmitted digitally, rather than using emails
• Utilising apps that centralize health and lab data and test/vaccination results e.g. CommonPass, trialled by United Airlines and Cathay Pacific Airways

As remote working becomes increasingly more common during the COVID-19 pandemic, a number of countries have begun to offer Remote Working Visas where people can work as 'digital nomads' i.e. live in one country but work remotely in another. For countries offering Remote Work Visas, this has contributed to boosting economies at a time when other industries (such as tourism) are suffering. For companies employing digital nomads it offers the opportunity to pay competitive salaries to those who may be able to reduce their living costs by not working in the same country as their employer. Similar programmes may be considered at a local level, whereby employees can decide to live and work remotely in one city, and be paid by a company in another. Consider the benefits for companies, including:

• Offering flexible working to help reduce resignations from staff who are reconsidering their work life in the aftermath of COVID-19 and explore job opportunities overseas
• The reduced cost of staff e.g. the London Weighting allowance means employers pay anything between 1-20% more to employees living and working In London compared to other UK regions

Consider the benefits for local economies, including:

• Building local economies by attracting new residents e.g. one study found that 60% of people has seen people reconsider their living situation, with many setting their sights on an escape to the coast
• Rebuilding economies that were reliant on other industries e.g. tourism as people consider relocating to areas such as the coast - an area hard-hit by a diminishing tourist industry due to COVID-19

Dr Marianne Sensier and Professor Fiona Devine, The University of Manchester, analyse economic resilience in UK regions and recommend additional policy measures to address the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19.

To read this briefing in full follow the source link below to TMB Issue 23 (p.2-6).

COVID-19 is having an adverse impact on the economy amid the ongoing global climate crisis. Balancing long-term economic recovery and renewal with environmental agendas may be one way to ensure economic growth while mitigating issues such as climate change. One means of achieving this is through renewed commitment from local and national government to invest in, and develop job creation for a low carbon economy. Consider how to encourage low carbon projects including upskilling and training local people in:

• Clean electricity generation and provision of low-carbon heat for homes and businesses e.g. the manufacturing wind turbines, deploying solar PV, installing heat pumps and maintaining energy-system infrastructure
• Installing energy efficiency products ranging from insulation, lighting and control systems
• Providing low-carbon services such e.g. financial, legal and IT, and producing alternative fuels such as bioenergy and hydrogen
• Encouraging low-emission vehicles and the associated infrastructure e.g. electric vehicles, manufacturing batteries, installing electric vehicle charge-points

This guest briefing (written by Michael Palin, GC Consulting UK) outlines the potential economic risk to local areas before describing in broad terms how local areas might respond in terms of their economic recovery plans. A final section highlights a number of issues that have already been identified in some local areas as key economic recovery issues in their place.

Follow the source link below to read this briefing in full (p.2-10).

Consider:

• Government schemes which pay young workers for employment in green industries to tackle unemployment
• Retraining older people in green industries to "leave no worker behind" in any transition towards a different economy
• Adaptation of plans for green industry by region. Some regions may be more adversely affected by job loss, for example, in areas that relied on tourism and hospitality so retrain these workers