Recovery, Renewal, Resilience

COVID-19 has dominated news, media, and local and national government communications for the best part of a year since the pandemic began. One study found that excessive media use was associated with negative psychological outcomes, such as anxiety and stress. Positivity can aid stress management and reduce levels of anxiety/depression. Consider:

• Demonstrate that there is a world outside of COVID-19 by communicating positive stories unrelated to COVID-19
• Encourage more positive COVID-19 stories to come through, for example:
  • Create a local news special that celebrates the effort of local volunteers or local government during the pandemic
• Use communication channels (e.g. social media/newsletters) to communicate positive stories:
  • Invite local community members to share positive news and stories that can be shared and promoted through these channels
  • Invite school children to draw and write positive messages and hang them on the trees/fences of local parks/buildings
  • Encourage people to take regular breaks from consumption of COVID-19 news (signpost to community groups that may be running weekly bingo/quizzes online)
• Create a call-to-action for local volunteers and begin inviting the community to take part in and create new positive local initiatives that are focused on recovery and renewal from COVID-19

While restrictions are gradually eased, religious festivals will also take place, e.g. Easter, Ramadan, and Ridvan. These occasions are often celebrated through community gatherings and special religious services/activities that enhance connectivity for people. As traditional celebratory activities have been unable to go ahead over the last year, and the message of lockdown easing takes hold, consider the need to:

• Review local plans that were in place during religious festivals in 2020:
  • Consult with community members when revising previous plans, to understand what has gone well and what could be improved this year
  • Support communities in the planning of COVID-safe celebrations for 2021, e.g. by allowing worship to be held in community spaces such as parks or public gardens
• Recognise and acknowledge the influence of faith and faith leaders in building trust and influencing behaviour:
  • By directly engaging in conversations with communities about religious celebration planning, other conversations can emerge, e.g. vaccination safety, concerns and attitudes towards uptake

COVID-19 has shed new light on the way in which countries respond to, and recover from emergencies. This includes COVID-19 specific advice and broader lessons about emergency preparedness and management. For example, previous guidance on volunteer management has traditionally assumed a point of convergence at a disaster site, while this still holds true for many emergencies e.g. floods, lessons from COVID-19 demonstrate that volunteer management may also be dispersed, large-scale and without face-to-face contact. Consider how lessons from COVID-19 may help to revise emergency plans:

• Conduct a 'stock take' of current emergency guidance, and consider what may be missing or no longer fit for purpose
• Implement debriefs, peer reviews and impact assessments, drawing on expertise from local government and emergency practitioners, to evaluate how well current guidance worked and where it needs revising
• Consider that emergency planning must remain relevant to specific types of emergencies, but that broader lessons from COVID-19 can help strengthen guidance e.g. issues of inclusion such as gender, ethnicity, sexuality; health and socio-economic disparities and vulnerabilities; volunteering capacity; supply chain stability; green agenda; and partnerships arrangements
• Draw on resources beyond government guidance from global networks e.g. Resilient Cities Network's revised toolkit which builds recovery from COVID-19 into a wider resilience agenda for a safe and equitable world, and resources from International Organization for Standardization (ISO) which is developing new recovery standards in light of COVID-19 lessons (ISO 22393)

Planning for the mass gathering of people after a disaster amid COVID-19 is essential to mitigate the transmission of disease. Mass gatherings may occur at health facilities, evacuation shelters, or distribution centres supporting the immediate needs of those affected by a disaster. Consider adapting plans for mass gatherings at sites such as health facilities to accommodate COVID-19 safety measures including:

• Identify facilities for phased relocation of hospitalised patients to manage the influx of new patients considering risks of COVID transmission
• Outline capacity arrangements for on-site emergency care, and special care options for people with pre-existing conditions who are at increased risk of the virus
• Identify resources for further disease outbreaks to counter the increased burden of additional infections and strains on resources (e.g. PPE) that are needed to mitigate COVID-19 transmissions
• Revise estimates of requirements for shelters and transportation for mass movement of people. Increase estimates by at least a 3-times to account for physical distancing
• Maintain an inventory of available dwellings (e.g.school buildings, community halls, places of worship) that will allow enough space for socially distance emergency accommodation
• Plan for distribution centres that distribute basic necessities such as food and medicine. Consider capitalising on community engagement at these sites to continue pandemic risk communication

Government organisations in India have been directing substantial effort to tackling the crisis. Part of this effort has involved producing a series of case study articles on how cities have tackled COVID-19. The actions those cities have implemented contain lessons which are transferable on: managing the spread of the virus, the use of technology, communication approaches, approaches to governance, and the participation of the community. Sharing case studies is a great contribution to the local, national and international effort to tackle the virus. Consider preparing case studies similar to:

• In Pune, how it took a people-based approach to responding to hotspot areas: https://www.cdri.world/casestudy/response_to_covid19_by_pune.pdf
• In Karnataka, how it worked with the IT sector to develop its technological approach to responding to the effects of COVID-19: http://cdri.world/casestudy/response-to-covid19-by-Karnataka.pdf
• In Goa, how it repurposed manufacturing capacity to produce hand sanitizer, and recovering production capacity of its pharmaceutical industry: http://cdri.world/casestudy/response_to_covid19_by_goa.pdf
• In Odisha, how women lead the fight against COVID-19 and child-focused interventions: http://cdri.world/casestudy/response-to-covid19-by-odisha.pdf

In all, there are eight case studies on the site, all detailing different approaches to responding to COVID-19.

Other case studies to consider:

Lahaul and Spiti:

http://cdri.world/casestudy/response_to_covid19_by_lahaul-and-spiti.pdf

Jharkhand:

http://cdri.world/casestudy/response_to_covid19_by_Jharkhand.pdf

Madhya Prades:

http://cdri.world/casestudy/response_to_covid19_by_madhya_pradesh.pdf

To prepare for the impact of a natural disaster alongside COVID-19, research should focus on modelling natural hazards beside epidemiological risks. This can inform public health responses to manage, for example, the dual challenges of dealing with the effects of flooding and preventing localised COVID-19 outbreaks). Consider pre-emptive strategies to counter the compounded risks of COVID-19 and natural hazards:

• Identify possible pandemic-natural disaster hybrid scenarios including worst-case scenarios
• Work with multiple organisations to build new hybrid forecast models that combine existing pandemic projection models and natural hazard forecasting
• Consider seasonal weather forecasting models in advance and their impact on transmission and health and response capacity
• Re-design response plans to focus on COVID-19 restrictions e.g. impacts on emergency aid distribution, involvement of volunteers, access to PPE, providing shelter, food distribution
• Exercise the impact of concurrent emergencies to identify key learning and integrate that learning refreshing plans in the light of COVID-19

The avoidable death framework (ADF) considers avoidable deaths from disasters, including pandemics which are amenable (treatable), preventable, or both. Amenable deaths require timely and effective healthcare. Preventable deaths can be avoided through public health interventions such as epidemiology and surveillance, outreach, screening and health teaching.

Amenable death research can analyse:

• Waiting times and the impacts of delays on those who receive and those who give care e.g. the time interval between onset of symptoms and seeking medical interventions; the time interval between the arrival of the patient and commencing treatment
• Effectiveness of the health system including outcomes that are affected by the way the system works e.g. the application of COVID-19 treatment protocol. More amenable (treatable) deaths in a given region would indicate a less effective system

Preventable death research can analyse:

• Effectiveness of health interventions e.g. hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette, social distancing, crowd control and lockdown
• Indirect deaths e.g. hunger, suicide

Consider how amenable and preventable deaths could be further effectively avoided through disaster risk governance which includes:

• Risk communication
• Coordination, collaboration and cooperation between the government and the general public; between governmental departments; and between the government and civil societies/multilateral organisations

By circulating through social media, encrypted messaging services, online discussion boards and face to face interaction. To achieve this, organisations might consider:

• Identifying fake news and actively debunking it on own social media accounts and public display boards
• Closely monitor automated systems for errors. In Australia the CovidSafe App alarmed and confused users with a message telling them that they had contracted coronavirus when trying to upload their information, despite not being tested. Additionally, in Ukraine, residents attacked busses with evacuees from China after a hoax email falsely attributed to the Ministry of Health suggested some carried the virus
• Supporting the public to think critically about, question and fact-check information they receive
• Working with community leaders to circulate useful, accurate information
• Monitoring and evaluating the impact of their own communication strategy, possibly working with partners such as universities to undertake social media analytics

Consider:

• Images are a useful tool for educating and reassuring children about COVID-19 and how they can stay safe
• Images are a useful tool to convey messages, or practices i.e. effective hand washing, those who speak another language and for those who are not able to read
• Images are a useful tool to provide information to people with disabilities to communicate ideas and practices in an accessible format

This lesson was offered by a Digital Transformation Specialist in India during project data collection.

Lockdown could be eased through:

• Gradual school reopening because children are at low risk, and there are high economic and educational costs to school closure
• Gradual return to work with younger people first (age segmentation) as they are relatively less at risk of COVID-19 than older people
• Gradual return to work by sector/workplace (sector segmentation) as some pose less risky than others
• Gradual release of lockdown by geography (geographic segmentation) as COVID-19 cases and NHS capacity vary across regions

Consider risk assessments for each of these options, since there are challenges with each e.g. cross-sector supply chains limit the benefits of sector segmentation.

Consider the following factors in the assessment:

• Costs vs. benefits
• How quickly can it be done?
• Will it be seen as fair?
• How practical is it?
• Can it be enforced?